The high level of uncertainty and major disruptions caused by the new US tariffs have dealt a severe blow to recovery expectations in the steel market for 2025, says EUROFER latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook.
Against the backdrop of broader economic resilience driven by services, industry remains weak, weighing on steel demand and consumption. Recovery is not expected before 2026, and only if positive developments emerge in the global geoeconomic outlook.
EUROFER estimates that the recession in apparent steel consumption will continue in 2025 (-0.9%) for the fourth consecutive year (-1.1% in 2024), contrary to earlier forecasts of growth (+2.2%). A similar trend is expected for steel-using sectors, with another recession in 2025 (-0.5%, after -3.7% in 2024) instead of a projected recovery (+1.6%). Steel imports remained at historically high levels (27%) throughout 2024.
“The new US 50% tariffs on steel are a further blow to the European steel market outlook, which was already weak. External factors such as global overcapacity, high energy prices and geopolitical tensions, continue to affect EU producers, who can no longer bear this situation and are left with no choice but close capacity, lay off workers and halt decarbonisation projects. In light of the continuous worsening of the EU steel market outlook, we call on the European Commission to consider emergency trade actions to ensure the stability of the EU steel market, should EU-US negotiations fail and further uncertainty and economic disruptions materialise”, said Axel Eggert, Director-General of the European Steel Association (EUROFER), following the publication of the Economic and Steel Market Outlook Q2 2025.
In 2024, apparent steel consumption saw growth only in Q4 (+0.5%), reaching 30.1Mt. The overall evolution of steel demand remains subject to very high uncertainty, with no improvement expected before Q1 2026. Consumption volumes are expected to remain far below pre-pandemic levels.
“The new US 50% tariffs on steel are a further blow to the European steel market outlook, which was already weak."
Axel Eggert, director-general, European Steel Association
Domestic deliveries followed a similar pattern and contracted again (-2%) in Q4, recording another overall annual decrease in 2024 (-2.8%). During the same period, imports continued to rise significantly (+6.3%), with an overall annual market share out of steel demand for 2024 standing again at a historical high of 27%.
The performance of steel-using sectors remained negative throughout 2024, with another drop (-4.9%) in Q4. Due to an overall gloomier industrial outlook, all steel-using sectors underperformed, particularly automotive (-2.6%) and construction (flat), contributing to a deeper-than-projected recession in the whole year 2024 (-3.7% versus -3.3%). US tariffs and associated uncertainty are now expected to impact the Steel Weighted Industrial Production index (SWIP) in 2025, with another projected recession (-0.5%), versus previous expectations of growth (+0.9%). A modest rebound (+1.3%) is expected in 2026.