CO2 emissions from steelmakers in Japan, Korea and Taiwan are expected to decrease by almost 45% by 2040, according to World Steel Dynamics, marking, says WSD, 'one of the steepest regional reductions'.
Why is this the case? WSD says that decreased steel production due to reduced domestic consumption and steel exports is the region. "Reduced domestic steel consumption is a function of demographics-driven lower consumer spending and decreased indirect steel exports, especially vehicles," reported WSD.
According to WSD, BF/BOF flat roll steel producers are starting to pivot to EAF steelmaking. The company cites Nippon Steel, JFE and POSCO as three steelmakers announcing 'major in-country investments, raising the regional EAF share from 28% to 37% by 2030, estimates WSD.
WSD believes that further EAF investment combined with lower overall production should drive the production share to 47% by 2040.
Producers in what WSD is calling the JKT region (Japan, Korea, Taiwan) are expected to reduce BF/BOF emissions intensity to less than 1.80kt CO2/tCS by further improving efficiencies, reducing coke rates and increasing the use of alternative fuel sources.
"Japanese producers remain committed to maintaining BF production through at least [to] 2050. The Super Course50 programme, with strong support from the Japanese government sets out a strategy to use hydrogen injection plus carbon capture to significantly reduce but not eliminate BF/BOF emissions," said WSD.
However, WSD is sceptical that BF carbon capture will prove to be technically and economically feasible. "We also think that there will prove to be better steelmaking uses for green hydrogen than large volume blast furnace injection," adding that continuing innovation (a hallmark of Japanese and Korean producers) 'combined with [the] societal, customer and competitor pressures required to accelerate BF retirements in the region.'
Source: World Steel Dynamics.