The global steel mill profit outlook for 2011 is forecast to be ‘fair to good’ with a 45% probability for ‘fair’ and a 30% for ‘good’, according to World Steel Dynamics Managing Partners, Peter Marcus and Karlis Kirsis, speaking at the annual European Steel Success Strategies conference organised by Metal Bulletin and WSD held in London in December.
Forecast fair for steel output
Published 23rd December, 2010 by Tim Smith
For 2012, the likelihood of ‘good’ rises to 40% while ‘fair’ drops to 30%.
While China continues to drive growth in 2011, a slow down is forecast in 2012 with growth in crude steel production falling from 9.7% y-o-y in 2010 to 3.8% in 2011 and 3.4% in 2012.
In a paper presented in his absence, Mr Wu Wenzhang, President Shanghai SteelHome website believes that Chinese crude steel output and consumption will peak close to or in 2012, at about 680Mt production and 650Mt consumption then both output and consumption will fall to 600Mt or less in 2020
Global steel production in 2010 is forecast to be a record 1.41bnt, a 4.4% rise on the previous high of 1.35bnt in 2007 and 14.5% above the 2009 figure.
A full report on the conference will appear in the March issue of Steel Times International.